A Title Up for Grabs: Thunder and Pacers Finals Matchup

ANAHEIM, CA JUNE 2 , 2025

Parity in the NBA has arguably never been stronger. This year’s Finals marks the seventh consecutive season that the league will crown a new champion, underscoring just how wide open the title chase has become. Neither team in this series has lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy before, guaranteeing a first-time champion and continuing an unprecedented stretch of competitive balance.

The 2024-2025 NBA postseason has delivered drama from hard-fought Game 7s to tightly contested matchups across both conferences. Fans have been treated to a thrilling ride that has brought us a Finals showdown few predicted at the start of the season.

Representing the Western Conference are the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, a young and dynamic squad that has built through the draft. And the opposing fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers, an Eastern Conference dark horse that caught fire at the right time and refused to be denied.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are back in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when a young core led by Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden fell to LeBron James and the Miami Heat. This marks only the second Finals appearance for the franchise since relocating from Seattle in 2008.

For the Indiana Pacers, the wait has been even longer. This is their first trip to the Finals since 2000, when Reggie Miller led the team against the Los Angeles Lakers in what became the start of the Lakers' early-2000s dynasty.

How Did We Get Here?

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are entering Thursday’s Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals riding the momentum of a remarkable season and an impressive postseason run.

Led by newly crowned 2024-2025 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have proven they are more than just a young team with upside.

They are ready to win now. Oklahoma City strengthened its core in the 2024 offseason by signing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency and trading for veteran guard Alex Caruso, two moves that added defense, depth, and playoff experience to an already talented roster.

The Thunder opened the playoffs by sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies, then survived a grueling seven-game series against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, sealing it with a dominant Game 7 victory. In the Western Conference Finals, they handled the red-hot Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, ending the run of a team that had knocked out both the Lakers and Warriors with ease.

Statistically, Oklahoma City has been outstanding on both ends of the court, leading the league in defensive rating and ranking third in offensive rating during the postseason. With a homegrown foundation, smart veteran additions, and elite two-way play, the Thunder are now just four wins away from their first NBA title since the franchise’s move from Seattle.

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On the other side, the Indiana Pacers are led by Tyrese Haliburton, a rising star who was controversially voted the league’s most overrated player in an anonymous player poll. Still, Haliburton continues to silence critics, leading his team to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000 and another deep playoff run after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals last season.

Despite making no major roster moves in the 2024 offseason, the Pacers have once again embraced the underdog role. They’re largely the same group that pushed the eventual champion Boston Celtics to the brink last year, and now they are four wins away from capturing Indiana's first-ever NBA championship.

Their playoff journey has been nothing short of impressive. Indiana opened with a five-game series win over the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, then stunned the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley. In the Eastern Conference Finals, they took down the third-seeded New York Knicks in six games, with strong performances from Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, who earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors.

And it’s not just momentum that’s on Indiana’s side. Statistically, the Pacers have been elite on offense, ranking second in offensive rating this postseason. While their defense hasn’t been as dominant, they lead all playoff teams in effective field goal percentage, proving they play smart, efficient basketball on the biggest stage.

Who Wins?

OKC Thunder

Prediction: Thunder in five.

The Indiana Pacers have had a fantastic postseason run, but when they face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals, the odds clearly favor the Thunder. Both teams enter with identical 12-4 playoff records, but the Thunder’s combination of pace, depth, and defensive dominance gives them the edge.

Offensively, Indiana is scoring a strong 117.4 points per game on 49.7 percent shooting, which is impressive. But Oklahoma City is right there at 117.1 points per game, and they are doing it with more possessions and a better overall impact. Their playoff point differential is plus 10.8 compared to Indiana’s plus 4.1. That gap shows just how much control the Thunder have in their games.

Rebounding is another key factor. The Thunder are pulling down an impressive 44.3 rebounds per game, led by bigs like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, compared to Indiana’s 39.6. More importantly, Oklahoma City dominates the offensive glass, averaging nearly double the offensive rebounds, 11.6 to 6.9, creating crucial second-chance scoring opportunities.

Defensively, the Thunder walk away with the Larry O'Brien trophy. They lead the postseason in defensive rating, force more turnovers with 11.8 per game to Indiana’s 12.7 and with more steals averaging 10.8 to Indiana's 7.5, and consistently disrupt opponents’ shots. This defensive pressure is key against Indiana’s more half-court, deliberate offense.

The Pacers may shine with star players like Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to secure a win, but they simply do not have the defensive personnel to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s relentless attack.

What's at Stake?

Sports Illustrated

For the Indiana Pacers, this might be the best roster they can build around Tyrese Haliburton. If they are going to win it all, this has to be the year. Myles Turner is set to become a free agent, and the contracts of Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will continue to grow in the coming years. Siakam, now 31, could begin to decline soon, and the Pacers do not own a first-round pick until 2027 after this season. They do hold the 23rd overall pick in this year's draft, but there is no guarantee they will find a rotation-ready player capable of replacing Turner or making an immediate impact.

For the Oklahoma City Thunder, this feels like the beginning of a potential dynasty. Nearly the entire core is under contract for at least the next three years, giving the team both stability and room for growth. With stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams still developing, the Thunder are built to win now and only look stronger in the future.

Their flexibility is one of their greatest advantages. Oklahoma City enters the upcoming draft with two first-round picks at No. 15 and No. 24, along with many more picks in the years ahead. Years of smart trades and long-term planning have positioned them to either continue building through the draft or pursue any major trade target that becomes available.

The roster is deep, well-coached, and already performing at the highest level. With elite defense, a fast-paced offense, and a front office focused on long-term success, the Thunder are not just championship contenders. They are the NBA’s newest rising dynasty.